2024 Vision: Embracing Economic Shifts for Stability and Opportunity

Indications point to a settling on the economic front, with a notable shift towards positivity in discussions and press releases.

Although inflation surged to 11.1% at an alarming rate, it has since decreased more rapidly than anticipated. Over the next 3-6 months, projections indicate a gradual return to the target rate of 2.0%.

Source https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/what-is-outlook-uk-inflation-2024-2024-01-17/

While there are signs suggesting a shallow recession in the UK, reflected in a slight drop in GDP for Q3 and sluggish growth in October 2023, there is optimism surrounding potential interest rate reductions by the end of Q1 2024. Markets and products are already factoring in these anticipated drops.

Much of the landscape in 2024 will be shaped by political developments, notably with a General Election looming on the horizon.

I foresee a more stable and resilient market over the next 18-24 months, marking a 'soft landing' since the turbulence of 2023. The first 3-6 months of 2024 are poised to offer significant opportunities, with both buyers and sellers actively engaged in transactions.

Overall valuations appear to be holding steady, with valuers acknowledging the market's upward trajectory and the forthcoming decrease in interest rates. However, there is a noted air of caution among valuers, who are increasingly seeking additional evidence and information before making assessments.

References

Topham, G. (2024) 'UK house prices on track to rise 3% in 2024, says leading agent,' The Guardian, 15 January. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/jan/15/uk-house-prices-on-track-to-rise-3-in-2024-says-leading-agent.